NEED BALANCED EXIT STRATEGY FROM LOCKDOWN: INDIA INC.
The author of this news feed is Vishakha Pandey, a Lawyer and Kamla Nehru Institute of Physical and social sciences ( law faculty), Sultanpur.
As the novel
coronavirus spreads across the world, it is becoming increasingly clear that a
large part of the world will remain under lockdown for months to come. Any exit
from the lockdown is likely to be partial and provisional. Compared to several
peers, India has been behind the curve in shaping an effective economic
response to the COVID-19 shock.
This poses a unique economic challenge. Nobel Prize-winning
economist Paul Krugman termed this
the “coronacoma",
the economic equivalent of a medically induced coma, “in which some brain
functions are deliberately shut down to give the patient time to heal". As
Krugman argued, the economic
response to the crisis will have to include two parts: One, an immediate
disaster relief component that ensures the survival of both firms and workers who
have been rendered idle. And, two, a stimulus component that aims to repair and
restart production lines during the exit phase of the lockdown.
For a country like India, with a large informal sector and a
weak social safety net, the first challenge is going to be much tougher than
the second one. As the migrant exodus after the lockdown announcement showed,
the sustainability of even a partial lockdown will depend on how well India
meets the disaster relief challenges. While the Union and state governments have
announced some relief measures, they appear to be grossly inadequate to meet
the challenge. Compared to most other countries, India’s relief-cum-stimulus
measures so far appear puny.
In order to
stabilize economic breakdown, industry body came forward to suggest certain
strategic clampdown to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to overcome from economic
crisis and balanced exit from lockdown.
In a document
submitted to the government by the Federation
of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci), the body said the
course of the disease is so unpredictable that policies will “always be
evolutionary" and will need to be reviewed daily.
While
coronavirus hotspots should be sealed with restrictions on movement, the
industry body said, a graded approach ought to be taken to restart industry
based on four categories—
In the first
category, areas should be cordoned off and all industrial units allowed to
operate with safety norms such as social distancing.
In the second, work can resume on a similar
scale by plying buses and trains to address migration of workers with the
precaution of testing.
In the third
category, areas with existing infection cases should be cordoned off and the
lockdown extended by a week. Only essential industries and export sectors
should be allowed to resume with adequate precautions.
In the last
category, the lockdown should be extended and measures such as rapid testing,
isolation of those testing positive and quarantine of those nearby for at least
two weeks should be practiced, according to the document.
“The exit from
the nationwide lockdown could be done by permitting healthy persons in the age
group 22 to 39 to resume work. This group of over 150 million people could put
the wheels of economic activity into motion," according to Ficci.
It said these
measures should be combined with precautions such as keeping the elderly and
children below five as well as those with pre-existing health conditions
isolated at home for the next four weeks. Districts and cities should be
classed as high, medium or low risk based on data, surveillance and assessment. While
practicing medical guidelines for safety is not going to be a big challenge for
the organized sector, it would be a challenge for the unorganized sector.
Deepak Sood, Secretary-General of the Associated
Chambers of Commerce and Industry in India (Assocham), said the country had to start planning a post-COVID-19
scenario. Despite the economic pain caused by the outbreak, he said Indian industry
also had a huge opportunity as globally industries would like to de-risk their
industrial value chain away from China. Vikram
Kirloskar, President of Confederation of Indian Industry, said that
the timing of resumption of economic activity should be based on an assessment
by the government together with medical professionals.
In my opinion,
even though if the exit of lockdown declared by the Central Government, Citizens
should maintain social distancing and follow the precautionary measures. Though
India is the plight of economic outburst, which leads to unemployment and major
depreciation in the purchasing power by the middle class and bourgeoisie,
henceforth, there might be a possibility that this pandemic could take us back
from where we have developed till now. So it is necessary to commence the
industrial function with diligent precautions gradually, otherwise, huge
pandemonium could be confronted in later months.
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